Climate and Flood Models Illuminate Changes to Florida’s Risk of Flooding

Have you ever wondered how researchers estimate future sea levels? Or what determines your flood zone? Or perhaps how engineers know what infrastructure is needed to manage flooding from stormwater? The answers lie in scientific modeling.  

There are many types of models that simulate key features of the world — from finance to natural processes — and allow experts to make informed decisions that protect the health and safety of people and the environment. At the Florida Flood Hub for Applied Research and Innovation, models help our experts investigate changes to Florida’s risk of flooding. 

Once created, models offer a way to test multiple “what if” scenarios in a virtual environment. The results, known as outputs, support evaluations that can inform policy, planning, and implementation, allowing decision makers to prioritize projects and allocate funding more effectively. 

Models help answer “what if” questions before events happen. In particular, climate and flood models are used to understand how future conditions will impact water and infrastructure.

To characterize Florida’s future risk of flooding, the Flood Hub’s workgroups on sea level change and rainfall turn to outputs of global climate models. These models include physical, chemical, and biological elements of the real world, along with principles from physics like thermodynamics, which describe the relationships between work, heat, and energy. Through these complex computer models, scientists explore how the Earth’s system responds to different conditions, allowing them to identify responses to current, and future conditions. 

The Sea Level Change Workgroup uses outputs from global climate models to estimate future changes in sea level. These models consider the effects of increasing global air temperature on the ocean and atmospheric processes that result in changes in sea level. By isolating the data relevant to Florida’s coastline, the workgroup is able to provide decadal estimates for changes in sea level change through 2100 that are specific to the Sunshine State.  

The Rainfall Workgroup also leverages data from global climate models. In this case, the workgroup uses outputs to estimate changes in rainfall as global air temperature increases. These estimates are derived for several scenarios of warming through 2040, 2050, 2070, and 2080, and they are provided for storms of different durations and intensities.  

Another type of scientific model, flood models, are used to estimate the speed, direction, and depth of water that flows during inundation events. Flood models include physical processes, such as the dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere, and real-world characteristics like landscapes, buildings, roads, canals, and stormwater systems. By running these models under different scenarios of potential flooding, we can investigate the behavior of floodwaters and resulting impacts to infrastructure. The Florida Flood Hub produces and compiles data that are essential to these simulations. 

Many different types of inputs are used in climate and flood models. Models rely on high-quality data to provide the best estimates of future conditions.

Scientific models are useful tools for estimating future outcomes. However, the real world is complex and replete with uncertainties, so models require high-quality data to make their estimates as accurate as possible.  

Two important steps — calibration and validation — help reduce errors and uncertainties when developing and applying a model. Calibration involves adjusting model parameters to find the best simulation of the real-world environment by comparing outputs to observed data. Validation is then performed to test the newly tuned model’s ability to simulate different historical events.  

Calibration and validation require accurate observations, which can be gathered using scientific instruments, like satellites and tide gauges, or through surveys of flooding. The Florida Flood Hub supports statewide efforts to improve high-quality data that can better inform numerical modeling. One example is an ongoing partnership with the University of South Florida’s College of Marine Science, which will increase the number of tide gauges around Florida.  

So, the next time you see construction on stormwater culverts or pipes, remember that outputs from scientific models helped guide those efforts to protect against current and future hazards. By working with stakeholders across the state to tailor existing models, develop new models, and inventory modeling efforts, the Flood Hub empowers communities to take actions that build a resilient future.