Florida Flood Hub Partnerships: USF Ocean Circulation Lab

Communities across Florida have long struggled with flooding along the coast, but those issues are magnified during hurricane season, when storm surge can raise water levels by several feet within just a few hours.   

A recent partnership between the Florida Flood Hub and the Ocean Circulation Lab at the University of South Florida’s College of Marine Science could help these communities better prepare for flooding by forecasting water levels days before the arrival of a storm.  

The Ocean Circulation Lab (OCL) operates several high-resolution models that forecast currents and water levels along the coast of Florida. First developed by the lab more than a decade ago, the West Florida Coastal Ocean Model (WFCOM) — along with the very high resolution Tampa Bay Coastal Ocean Model (TBCOM) and the newly developed East Florida Coastal Ocean Model (EFCOM) — can now be used to forecast water levels well before landfall of a hurricane. 

“Hurricane season can be a very demanding time of year for us,” said Yonggang Liu, associate professor and director of the OCL. “Our lab has been quick to respond to tropical storms in the past to make sure we can provide the most reliable data to people who need them.” 

The image above shows the spatial extent of the three models maintained by the Ocean Circulation Lab — the West Florida Coastal Ocean Model (WFCOM), East Florida Coastal Ocean Model (EFCOM), and the Tampa Bay Coastal Ocean Model (TBCOM) — which can now be used to forecast water levels before landfall of a hurricane. Credit: Ocean Circulation Lab.

With financial support from the Flood Hub, the lab was able to implement updates to existing models and make its resources more accessible to stakeholders through its online portal. 

An updated version of WFCOM used for daily nowcasts/forecasts not only has improved resolution and coverage for intracoastal waterways and small estuaries, but will also run more efficiently and reliably thanks to an update to its source code. 

The refined models also incorporate more detailed seafloor data, which increases the accuracy of predictions and enables enhanced forecasting tools.  

A new product developed by the lab will provide further insight into water levels. The Unified Water Level (Storm Surge) Forecast Guidance Product combines outputs from all three models with near-real-time observations from tide gauges around the Southeastern United States, including the entire Florida coast and the northern Gulf coast.  

This animation shows water levels for Clearwater Beach in February 2026. The first three days compare water levels simulated by the Tampa Bay Coastal Ocean Model (TBCOM) in red and observed at a tide gauge in blue. The red line continues to illustrate the model’s forecast of water levels for three and a half days. Visualizations of water levels are available for all tide gauges within the areas covered by the Ocean Circulation Lab’s models. Credit: Ocean Circulation Lab.

“The Ocean Circulation Lab has long been a leader in circulation modeling,” says Tom Frazer, dean of the College of Marine Science and executive director of the Flood Hub. “We’re excited to partner with the lab, leverage its products and expertise, and help Floridians better prepare for flooding events.” 

Using informative products built on enhanced coastal models, communities across Florida and along the Gulf coast can benefit from more accurate forecasts of water levels — a critical element for safeguarding lives and property during hurricane season.